It feels rather a long time since I last posted some tips. And it feels even longer since that fine day at the end of May when Ralph Beckett’s Talent swooped to land the Epsom Oaks:
Though it may seem somewhat distant, it is certainly hard to forget such an emphatic victory in one of the most important races in the world, especially since the WP had tipped Talent at 20/1! She hasn’t run since and this is probably a good sign, showing that Mr. Beckett has every faith that she can pick up her second Classic on Saturday.
It must however be said that, as is regularly the case, the Epsom Oaks form has not worked out well, with all the horses behind Talent that have had a run since (8 of Epsom’s 11-strong field!) being well beaten. However, so emphatic was the winner’s performance I still believe she could be an exceptional animal and deserves to head the market.
But despite her impressive win on 31/05, Talent will certainly not have things her own way at the Curragh and is indeed currently sharing favouritism with the highly exciting Riposte.
Now trained by Lady Cecil following the untimely death of her husband Sir Henry (RIP), she made the leap from Maiden company to the Ribblesdale (Group II) at Ascot this season in great style:
This was an excellent run from a filly with so little experience and she is clearly a precocious…talent. Like…Talent at Epsom, she stayed the 12f trip with ease and will presumably not have any trouble at the Curragh no matter the pace as the kick she showed at Ascot proved she has the ‘Classic’ combination of speed and stamina.
With this impressive form in the bag and more improvement highly likely (especially from the Cecil filly), the pair at the top of the market are certainly worthy favourites and their imminent face-off is a mouth-watering prospect for any racing fan. However, no tipster will keep their head above water by suggesting 5/2 favourites for some of the toughest races of the season, so, loath as I am to forsake my dear Talent, I’ve decided to look elsewhere for value.
There are currently 8 runners declared for Saturday’s showpiece. As some you will know, this is the minimum number required for EW bets to be paid on 3 places and is therefore the ideal number for an EW play.
Aidan O’Brien is a trainer to be ignored at one’s peril and has an impeccable record in the Irish Classics. He has 3 declared for the race, with the twice-raced Venus de Milo currently shortest in the betting at 11/2. Joseph O’Brien, the trainer’s son and stable jockey at Ballydoyle, who presumably had the pick of the trio, has opted to ride JUST PRETENDING, who is available at 14/1. Personally, I would have these prices reversed. Venus de Milo certainly has great potential, but JUST PRETENDING has already demonstrated her qualities on the track by winning a Group III at Leopardstown, finishing a length and three quarters behind the top-class Just The Judge when 3rd in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, and running with great credit when 2nd behind Riposte at Ascot on her first attempt at a mile and a half. As you will have seen in the above video of the Ribblesdale, Riposte got first run that day and JUST PRETENDING met with some trouble in running when deploying her finishing kick. Of course, she was beaten 2 and a quarter lengths at Ascot, but surely shouldn’t be 14/1, especially considering that she is by Giant’s Causeway, a sire whose progeny often keep improving for racing.
I don’t have time to write something on every horse running on Saturday, but must give a quick mention to the sole French raider, Alain De Royer-Dupré’s Chicquita. She has developed something of a reputation in her short career and not only due to her great…talent:
She again showed some wayward tendencies when finishing 4 lengths down to the outstanding Trêve in the Prix de Diane, but if Johnny Murtagh can keep her on the straight and narrow she can certainly play a part in proceedings.
TIP: JUST PRETENDING – 1pt EW at 14/1.
Be lucky!
Alex @ The Winning Post.
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